Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 3.143027 3.729509 4.382231 5.160675 6.061832 7.070226 8.282009
2025-07-06 2.187098 2.943897 3.882886 5.124972 6.715120 8.671945 11.250264
2025-07-13 1.771981 2.650443 3.842770 5.558010 7.936510 11.088323 15.544441
2025-07-20 1.420110 2.332137 3.671293 5.742157 8.814873 13.145923 19.635001
2025-07-27 1.181731 2.108765 3.567507 5.969289 9.745393 15.352657 24.170686
2025-08-03 0.961801 1.856205 3.357622 5.976872 10.317816 17.073568 28.166551
2025-08-10 0.759462 1.582243 3.052581 5.763392 10.485446 18.163830 31.286355
2025-08-17 0.594037 1.333851 2.738623 5.469500 10.456454 18.906461 33.895709
2025-08-24 0.490340 1.179762 2.563509 5.385569 10.761438 20.209264 37.527143
2025-08-31 0.410497 1.055424 2.420088 5.331875 11.101940 21.591517 41.407885
2025-09-07 0.369723 1.007680 2.421230 5.557408 11.985826 24.013393 47.322263
2025-09-14 0.320254 0.927235 2.337405 5.593160 12.498889 25.798573 52.238226
2025-09-21 0.274192 0.845694 2.240350 5.594914 12.962971 27.575096 57.379990
2025-09-28 0.233539 0.767857 2.137656 5.569298 13.370481 29.291903 62.590177
2025-10-05 0.224566 0.776053 2.244792 6.040997 14.900096 33.377746 72.757733
2025-10-12 0.202986 0.741623 2.238109 6.241415 15.855734 36.388654 81.052797
2025-10-19 0.185808 0.716007 2.249462 6.486989 16.941182 39.765698 90.365942
2025-10-26 0.161904 0.661641 2.171986 6.495431 17.475662 42.023016 97.557947
2025-11-02 0.133950 0.584395 2.013490 6.265367 17.409952 42.970525 102.073809
2025-11-09 0.108335 0.506362 1.834820 5.948440 17.085892 43.306459 105.295929
2025-11-16 0.092536 0.460031 1.742996 5.857910 17.318825 44.920275 111.438029
2025-11-23 0.079786 0.421348 1.667005 5.799986 17.627617 46.734784 118.169416
2025-11-30 0.074504 0.412878 1.690325 6.043280 18.767404 50.612296 129.876987